O roli znawstwa politycznego w występowaniu efektu patrzenia wstecz

Julita Koszur

Abstract

The studies sought to clarify whether political competence can attenuate hindsight bias in this domain. The first experiment indicated that hindsight bias occurred among political experts in political task and was stronger in the hypothetical than the memory design. In the second experiment political experts showed weaker hindsight bias than laymen (memory design); competence did not reduce the distortion in hypotheti-cal design. The third study was conducted only in the hypothetical design. In the case of political material both groups of participants, with high and low level of knowledge, showed hindsight bias, however politi-cal science students revealed a slightly weaker distortion. The psychological content yielded surprising results: the bias occurred only among psychological experts, but not among laymen. The experiments did not provide clear evidence about the role of political expertise in hindsight bias. Results are discussed in terms of the cognitive model SARA (Selective Activation, Reconstruction, and Anchoring) and motivational factors.