How information about probabilities and pay-offs is combined in risk judgment?

Joanna Sokołowska , Andrew Pohorille

Abstract

How information about probabilities and pay-offs is combined in risk judgment? In most theories of risk judgment, it is assumed that probabilities and payoffs combine multiplicatively. However, there is empirical evidence that risk judgment is better represented by an additive combination of probability and utility. So far, this additive relation has been demonstrated only for risk rates averaged over all participants. Thus, it may be argued that the observed additive combination rule is an artifact of averaging individual strategies focused either on probabilities or payoffs. In this experiment, both the average and individual risk rates were compared with prediction of the multiplicative and additive models. The additive model provides good description of actual risk rates, both for the averages and for a majority of participants individually, whereas the multiplicative model performs poorly. Moreover, the analysis of the relative importance of payoffs and probabilities in risk judgments points to individual differences in weighting both factors but does not support concerns that the additive relation between probability and amount of loss results from averaging individual strategies, in which participants pay attention to only one of these two dimension. Keywords: risk perception, dimensional models of risk perception, the relative importance of utility and probability of loss in risk judgment
Author Joanna Sokołowska (Wydział Psychologii)
Joanna Sokołowska,,
- Wydział Psychologii
, Andrew Pohorille
Andrew Pohorille,,
-
Journal seriesPolish Psychological Bulletin, ISSN 0079-2993, e-ISSN 1641-7844, (B 15 pkt)
Issue year2004
Vol35
No3
Pages141-152
Publication size in sheets0.55
ASJC Classification3200 General Psychology
Languageen angielski
Score (nominal)0
Publication indicators Scopus SNIP (Source Normalised Impact per Paper): 2009 = 0.107
Citation count*
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Dorobek Naukowy - Preview URLhttp://dn.swps.edu.pl/Podglad.aspx?WpisID=4141
Dorobek Naukowy - Approve URLhttp://dn.swps.edu.pl/Biuro/ZatwierdzanieWpisu.aspx?WpisID=4141
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* presented citation count is obtained through Internet information analysis and it is close to the number calculated by the Publish or Perish system.
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