Risk inherent in delay accounts for magnitude effects in intertemporal decision making

Wojciech Białaszek , Przemysław Marcowski , Paweł Ostaszewski


If the future is indeed uncertain, then is the subjective riskiness of future gains and losses amount-dependent? To address this question, we performed two experiments, one regarding hypothetical monetary gains and the other regarding hypothetical monetary losses. Our main objective was to determine whether the magnitude effect observed in delay discounting can be explained by the subjective probability of receiving a future outcome. We employed a well-grounded discounting paradigm with a fixed-sequence procedure and the Subjective Probability Questionnaire across different magnitudes of gains and losses. We replicated prior findings indicating that the magnitude effect (observed in delay discounting) or the reverse magnitude effect (observed in probability discounting) are present for monetary gains but not for monetary losses. We found that the subjective probability of receiving future outcomes is amount-dependent for gains but not for losses. We propose that the magnitude effect can be a by-product of the risk associated with future payoffs of different magnitudes, as shown by mediation analysis. Our secondary goal was to investigate the form of the subjective probability function over time to determine if the change in risk inherent in delay is best described by the hyperbolic or exponential equations. We demonstrate that delay and probability discounting, as well as the subjective probability function, are best described by a simple hyperbolic model
Author Wojciech Białaszek (Wydział Psychologii)
Wojciech Białaszek,,
- Wydział Psychologii
, Przemysław Marcowski (Wydział Psychologii)
Przemysław Marcowski,,
- Wydział Psychologii
, Paweł Ostaszewski (Wydział Psychologii)
Paweł Ostaszewski,,
- Wydział Psychologii
Journal seriesCurrent Psychology, ISSN 1046-1310, e-ISSN 1936-4733, (A 20 pkt)
Issue year2018
Publication size in sheets0.75
Keywords in EnglishDelay discounting Probability discounting Risk Uncertainty Magnitude effect
ASJC Classification3200 General Psychology
URL https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12144-018-0092-4
Languageen angielski
Risk inherent in delay accounts for magnitude effects in intertemporal.pdf 776.86 KB
Additional file
Oświadczenie_P.Ostaszewski_Risk inherent.pdf 27.66 KB
Oświadczenie_W.Białaszek_Risk inherent.pdf 496.38 KB
Oswiadczenie_P.Markowski_Risk inherent.pdf 435.31 KB
Score (nominal)20
Score sourcejournalList
Publication indicators Scopus SNIP (Source Normalised Impact per Paper): 2017 = 0.736; WoS Impact Factor: 2017 = 1.28 (2) - 2017=1.165 (5)
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