Simple eye movement metrics can predict future decision making performance: The case of financial choices

Michał Król , Magdalena Król

Abstract

Decisions are often delegated to experts chosen based on their past performance record which may be subject to noise. For instance, a person with little skill could still make a lucky decision that proves correct ex-post, while a skilled expert could make the best possible use of available information to reach a decision that, with hindsight, turns out incorrect. We aimed to show that one could assess decision skills more accurately when analyzing not only the observed decisions, but also the decision-making process. Incorporating eye-tracking into an established behavioral finance experimental framework, we found that making an eye transition between pieces of information that previous research associated with bias makes one less likely to make good financial decisions in future trials. Thus, even the simplest, easy to obtain eye metrics could allow us to more accurately judge if a person’s performance is a reflection of skill, or down to luck and unlikely to be reproduced in the future.
Author Michał Król
Michał Król,,
-
, Magdalena Król (Filia we Wrocławiu / II Wydział Psychologii we Wrocławiu)
Magdalena Król,,
- II Wydział Psychologii we Wrocławiu
Journal seriesJudgment and Decision Making, ISSN 1930-2975, (N/A 100 pkt)
Issue year2019
Vol14
No3
Pages223-233
Publication size in sheets0.5
Keywords in Englisheconomic decisions, stock trading, eye-tracking, predicting performance
ASJC Classification2002 Economics and Econometrics; 3202 Applied Psychology; 1800 General Decision Sciences
URL http://journal.sjdm.org/18/18405/jdm18405.pdf
Languageen angielski
File
simple eye movement_tekst.pdf 718.51 KB
Additional file
simple eye movement_oswiadczenie.pdf 269.64 KB
Score (nominal)100
Score sourcejournalList
Publication indicators Scopus SNIP (Source Normalised Impact per Paper): 2017 = 1.244; WoS Impact Factor: 2017 = 2.525 (2) - 2017=2.868 (5)
Citation count*1 (2020-10-18)
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* presented citation count is obtained through Internet information analysis and it is close to the number calculated by the Publish or Perish system.
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