Multiple numeric competencies predict decision outcomes beyond fluid intelligence and cognitive reflection

Agata Sobków , Angelika Olszewska , Jakub Traczyk

Abstract

The goal of the present study was to compare the relative contribution of different cognitive abilities and preferences to superior decision making. Additionally, we aimed to test hether skilled decision makers have better and more sophisticated long-term memory representations of personally meaningful risky situations. A large sample from the general population completed a series of tasks and questionnaires measuring cognitive abilities and preferences (fluid ntelligence, cognitive reflection, and multiple numeric competencies: statistical numeracy, subjective numeracy, approximate numeracy) and decision making outcomes (a set of monetary lotteries and a self-report inventory measuring success in avoiding negative decision outcomes in real-life). We also designed a memory task in which participants were instructed to discriminate between decision outcomes presented in the first stage of the study and distractors. We found that multiple numeric competencies predicted decision making beyond fluid intelligence and cognitive reflection. Especially, the acuity of symbolic-number mapping (a measure of approximate numeracy) was the most robust single predictor of superior decision making. Moreover, a combination of different cognitive abilities contributed to a better understanding of decision outcomes. For example, superior decision making in monetary lotteries was best predicted by approximate numeracy, statistical numeracy, and fluid intelligence, while avoiding negative decision outcomes in real-life was best predicted by approximate and subjective numeracy. Finally, we demonstrated that people with high approximate numeracy had better memory for decision outcomes and produced more vivid mental representations, suggesting that memory processes can be crucial to superior decision making.