Path Dependency in the Discounting of Delayed and Probabilistic Gains and Losses

Wojciech Białaszek , Przemysław Marcowski

Abstract

Human decision making often involves outcomes that are both risky and delayed. In such delayed lottery scenarios, the question of how such prospects are evaluated arises. An individual can arrive at their choice by following three different subjective value elicitation paths: (1) a direct path by considering the delay and risk of an outcome simultaneously; (2) a delay-probability path by first considering the delay and then the risk of an outcome; and (3) a probability-delay path by first considering the probability and then the delay of an outcome. Using a discounting framework, we conducted an experiment to investigate whether individual choices are path dependent, i.e., if the three paths elicit different subjective values of risky and delayed gains or losses. The experiment included an arbitrary selection of delays and individual probability estimates corresponding to each delay, obtained in an additional delay-probability trade-off task. Such approach ensured the equal individual decision factor strength of each outcome delay and probability. Our findings demonstrate that the human choice of risky and delayed gains or losses is indeed path dependent, which contrasts with the normative view. Furthermore, we present evidence that human choice more closely follows the delay-probability elicitation path than the probability-delay path in the domain of gains
Author Wojciech Białaszek (Wydział Psychologii)
Wojciech Białaszek,,
- Wydział Psychologii
, Przemysław Marcowski (Wydział Psychologii)
Przemysław Marcowski,,
- Wydział Psychologii
Journal seriesScientific Reports, ISSN 2045-2322, (N/A 100 pkt)
Issue year2019
Vol9
No8738
Pages1-9
Publication size in sheets0.5
ASJC Classification1000 Multidisciplinary
Abstract in original languageHuman decision making often involves outcomes that are both risky and delayed. In such delayed lottery scenarios, the question of how such prospects are evaluated arises. An individual can arrive at their choice by following three different subjective value elicitation paths: (1) a direct path by considering the delay and risk of an outcome simultaneously; (2) a delay-probability path by first considering the delay and then the risk of an outcome; and (3) a probability-delay path by first considering the probability and then the delay of an outcome. Using a discounting framework, we conducted an experiment to investigate whether individual choices are path dependent, i.e., if the three paths elicit different subjective values of risky and delayed gains or losses. The experiment included an arbitrary selection of delays and individual probability estimates corresponding to each delay, obtained in an additional delay-probability trade-off task. Such approach ensured the equal individual decision factor strength of each outcome delay and probability. Our findings demonstrate that the human choice of risky and delayed gains or losses is indeed path dependent, which contrasts with the normative view. Furthermore, we present evidence that human choice more closely follows the delay-probability elicitation path than the probability-delay path in the domain of gains
DOIDOI:10.1038/s41598-019-45376-9
URL https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-45376-9
Languageen angielski
File
Path dependency in the discounting.pdf 1.47 MB
Additional file
Oswiadczenie_W.Bialaszek_Path Dependency.pdf 529.83 KB
Oswiadczenie_P.Marcowski_Path Dependency.pdf 525.35 KB
Score (nominal)100
Score sourcejournalList
Publication indicators Scopus SNIP (Source Normalised Impact per Paper): 2016 = 1.401; WoS Impact Factor: 2017 = 4.122 (2) - 2017=4.609 (5)
Citation count*
Cite
Share Share

Get link to the record


* presented citation count is obtained through Internet information analysis and it is close to the number calculated by the Publish or Perish system.
Back
Confirmation
Are you sure?